Reliability of Wind Power Scenarios and Stochastic Unit Commitment Cost

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2017-01-01
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Sari, Didem
Ryan, Sarah
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Ryan, Sarah
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Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
The Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering teaches the design, analysis, and improvement of the systems and processes in manufacturing, consulting, and service industries by application of the principles of engineering. The Department of General Engineering was formed in 1929. In 1956 its name changed to Department of Industrial Engineering. In 1989 its name changed to the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering.
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Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
Abstract

Probabilistic wind power scenarios constitute a crucial input for stochastic day-ahead unit commitment in power systems with deep penetration of wind generation. To minimize the expected cost, the scenario time series of wind power amounts available should accurately represent the stochastic process for available wind power as it is estimated on the day ahead. The high computational demands of stochastic programming motivate a search for ways to evaluate scenarios without extensively simulating the stochastic unit commitment procedure. Reliability of wind power scenario sets can be assessed by statistical verification approaches. In this study, we examine the relationship between the statistical evaluation metrics and the results of stochastic unit commitment. Lack of uniformity in a mass transportation distance rank histogram can eliminate scenario sets that might lead to either excessive no-load costs of committed units or high penalty costs for violating energy balance. Event-based metrics can help to predict the cost performance of the remaining scenario sets.

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Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2017
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