The U.S. Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion urges consumers to eat between five and nine servings of fresh fruits and vegetables per day. Not all consumers are reaching that goal, but per capita consumption of fresh produce is steadily increasing (see Figure 1). Between 1980 and 2001, per capita consumption of fresh fruits increased by 19 percent and consumption of vegetables (including potatoes) increased by 29 percent. At the same time, new technologies to extend shelf life and new trade agreements have increasingly allowed imports of fresh produce to fill gaps where domestic supplies are too small and domestic products are out of season.

The direction of U.S. farm policy changed with the passage of the 2002 farm bill and the 2000 Agricultural Risk Protection Act. Previous farm bills, together with the old crop insurance program, had gradually moved the crops sector toward greater market orientation, with farmers taking on more market risk in exchange for greater planting flexibility. But the beginning of this decade brought with it increased protection against both adverse price movements and crop losses. These policy changes were brought about largely at the behest of farm commodity organizations, who argued that they needed increased protection against the vagaries of weather and market conditions. As we will demonstrate, the reduction in risk that U.S. crop farmers obtain from crop insurance and commodity programs is now so dramatic that we may have entered a new era of risk-free farming.

Over the past few months, we have seen tremendous variability in commodity prices. Soybean futures prices have increased by roughly 50 percent since mid-July, spurred on by lower-thanexpected production and an evertightening supply. Cattle futures prices have fallen by nearly 20 percent since the announcement of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) case in Washington. But what do these price swings mean for Iowa’s agricultural and overall state economy?

The much anticipated implementation rules for the Conservation Security Program (CSP), authorized in the 2002 Farm Security and Rural Investment Act, were unveiled January 2, in the Federal Register. In addition to describing the proposed rules, the Natural Resources Conservation Service outlines the challenge they faced in constructing a coherent implementation plan for a program that was initially developed as an entitlement program but later faced funding caps. The magnitude of this challenge is aptly summarized by the USDA’s Economic Research Service, which finds that if all of the 1.8 million farms and ranches likely to be eligible for the program were to enroll, the total budgetary cap of $3.77 billion would be completely exhausted in the first sign up.