Document Type

Article

Publication Date

Winter 2014

Journal or Book Title

Journal of Media Business Studies

Volume

11

Issue

4

First Page

27

Last Page

50

Abstract

The cumulative growth in innovations such as new media has been modeled with Scurves. However, the S-curve model has not been applied to mature innovations that have reached their peak of diffusion and begun to decline. This study explores the potential extension of the use of the S-curve to model decays in the availability or usage of traditional media. Using annual data from declines in telegrams, afternoon newspapers, vinyl records, outdoor movie theaters, and VHS tapes, this study finds that declines in incumbent media often follow a dramatic downward path that is more abrupt than that of media undergoing growth. Implications for media management and theory are discussed.

Comments

This is a manuscript of an article from Journal of Media Business Studies 11 (2014): 27. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner

Newell, et al.

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

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