Mike T. C. Chen, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Science, Iowa State University; Justin Glisan, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University


This thesis analyzes the effects of increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the earth’s atmosphere a long with corresponding temperature increases associated with it based on RCP data outputs. Through the manipulation of precipitation variables in the APSIM Model the probability of wheat yields matching the Iowa average yield determined by the USDA is then analyzed. Precipitation variables that are changed include annual rainfall amounts and total available ground moisture of ground layer from 260cm deep. Results show that future carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature changes will result in dramatic probability decreases in reaching Iowa average yield by the year 2100. The most dramatic effect was the reduction of ground water on the total yields and a drop of annual precipitation from 10 to 25 percent had minimal to marginal impact of the yield probabilities. Future implications of the research depicts a grim outlook on future crop yields for wheat in Iowa. Yields most likely will be unable to adjust to increased demand and the global impact will be catastrophic if wheat genetics and growing habits are not altered.

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Eric Manges


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