Date

2018

Mentor

William Gallus – Mentor Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University

Kristie Franz – Mentor Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University

Bradly Carlberg – Mentor Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University

Abstract

Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) are currently the precipitation input used in hydrological models. Utilization of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) instead of QPE as the hydrological model input would improve warning lead times for flash and river flooding and provide emergency managers advanced warning to help mitigate damages. Currently, displacement magnitude errors which can misrepresent the location of impacts limits QPF utilization. This study examines displacement errors in two convective allowing ensembles, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRE) and the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF), to determine generalized displacements errors, as well as if initiation hour displacements might help project the overall displacement of the system, to help improve QPF displacement errors. A systematic westward bias in QPF displacement was found in HRRRE, along with individual biases among certain members of HREF. While a relationship between initiation hour displacements and accumulation displacements is suggested, the nature of that relationship remains unclear

Copyright Owner

Benjamin M. Kiel

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Meteorology Commons

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