Campus Units

Political Science

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

3-11-2019

Abstract

How do trade wars affect presidential support? President Trump's aggressive tariffs on China despite his largely rural electoral support base provide a unique opportunity to analyze the relationship between international trade policy and domestic support. If trade-related considerations were ever decisive to American voters, the stark decrease in soy prices, a direct effect of Trump-initiated tariffs immediately preceding the 2018 midterm election, serves as a critical test for studying their effect. This letter shows a robust inverse relationship between county-level soybean production and the change in Republican vote share between the 2016 and 2018 congressional elections.

Comments

This unpublished article is cited as Chyzh,O.V., Urbatsch, R. Bean Counters: The effects of soy tariffs on change in Republican vote share between the 2016 and 2018 election. March 11, 2019. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner

The Author(s)

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

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