The role of physical scheme interactions on warm season rainfall forecasts
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The Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences offers majors in three areas: Geology (traditional, environmental, or hydrogeology, for work as a surveyor or in mineral exploration), Meteorology (studies in global atmosphere, weather technology, and modeling for work as a meteorologist), and Earth Sciences (interdisciplinary mixture of geology, meteorology, and other natural sciences, with option of teacher-licensure).
History
The Department of Geology and Mining was founded in 1898. In 1902 its name changed to the Department of Geology. In 1965 its name changed to the Department of Earth Science. In 1977 its name changed to the Department of Earth Sciences. In 1989 its name changed to the Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences.
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1898-present
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- Department of Geology and Mining (1898-1902)
- Department of Geology (1902-1965)
- Department of Earth Science (1965-1977)
- Department of Earth Sciences (1977-1989)
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- College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (parent college)
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Abstract
Despite numerous efforts that have been undertaken to improve rainfall forecasts it still remains the most poorly forecasted meteorological variable. Errors in simulated rainfall arise as a result of errors in both initial conditions and numerical models. To compensate for these limitations, in recent years ensemble forecasting has been increasingly used. At first, ensembles were designed based on perturbed initial conditions, while recently use of mixed-physics and mixed-model ensembles for rainfall forecasting have been extensively investigated;The main objective of the present study was to help optimizing a mixed physics ensemble for warm season MCS rainfall forecasting by evaluating the impact that various physical schemes as well as their interactions have on rainfall forecasts. In addition, the work investigated how the impact of the physical schemes and their interaction changed when different initial conditions were used. For this purpose, high resolution (12-km grid spacing, 34 vertical levels) simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model of 8 International H2O Project events were examined. For each event a matrix of 18 WRF model configurations was created by varying the convective parameterization scheme, the PBL scheme, and microphysical schemes. In order to quantify the impact of varying two different model physical schemes on the simulated rainfall field, the factor separation methodology was used.