Degree Type

Thesis

Date of Award

1-1-2005

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Theses & dissertations (Interdisciplinary)

Major

Interdisciplinary Graduate Studies

Abstract

In this thesis, effects of deception on convergence in the Delphi Technique have been investigated through an "e-Delphi" experiment where Prescribed Deceptive Feedback was given as the statistical group response. The subject of the e-Delphi experiment was to estimate areas of irregular shapes by a panel of participants who had more than sufficient expertise in the subject matter - in this case background in mathematics - to reach reasonable responses. It was demonstrated that most of the participants had a tendency to move toward the group response, although such a move was unwarranted. The primary conclusion from this exercise is that a well-defined qualification for expertise in the subject matter is not enough to become a good Delphi panelist. The effect of deception was strengthened by iteration, and for the most part self-ratings of confidence of responses increased over the rounds.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31274/rtd-20201107-517

Copyright Owner

Kaya Tolon

Language

en

OCLC Number

65210653

File Format

application/pdf

File Size

80 pages

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