Degree Type
Thesis
Date of Award
1-1-2005
Degree Name
Master of Science
Department
Theses & dissertations (Interdisciplinary)
Major
Interdisciplinary Graduate Studies
Abstract
In this thesis, effects of deception on convergence in the Delphi Technique have been investigated through an "e-Delphi" experiment where Prescribed Deceptive Feedback was given as the statistical group response. The subject of the e-Delphi experiment was to estimate areas of irregular shapes by a panel of participants who had more than sufficient expertise in the subject matter - in this case background in mathematics - to reach reasonable responses. It was demonstrated that most of the participants had a tendency to move toward the group response, although such a move was unwarranted. The primary conclusion from this exercise is that a well-defined qualification for expertise in the subject matter is not enough to become a good Delphi panelist. The effect of deception was strengthened by iteration, and for the most part self-ratings of confidence of responses increased over the rounds.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31274/rtd-20201107-517
Copyright Owner
Kaya Tolon
Copyright Date
2005
Language
en
OCLC Number
65210653
File Format
application/pdf
File Size
80 pages
Recommended Citation
Tolon, Kaya, "Investigating expert bias toward statistical group feedback in the Delphi Technique" (2005). Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 20960.
https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd/20960
