Date of Award
Doctor of Philosophy
Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
Harold A. Cowles
In a technology driven environment, a depreciation estimate which is based on traditional life analysis results in a decelerated rate of capital recovery. The time pattern of technological growth models needs to be incorporated into the life analysis framework especially in those industries experiencing fast technological changes;Various technological forecasting models have been proposed to represent the time pattern of technological growths. Of six such models studied, some models do significantly better than others, especially at low penetration levels, in predicting future levels of growth. The lack of a direct relationship between fitting and forecasting ability implies that fitting alone should not be used a priori to select growth models for the purpose of forecasting;Criteria for selecting an appropriate model for technological growth model are examined in this study. Two major characteristics were selected which differentiate the various models; the skew of the curve and the underlying assumptions regarding the variance of the error structure of the model;The remaining life technique is suggested to better match the challenges of accelerated technology and competition within the regulated environment. The flexibility of the remaining life method will allow an even better chance to provide a complete recovery of the original cost;Although the use of statistical techniques still requires some subjective input and interpretations, this study provides some practical procedures in the selection of technological growth models and helps to reduce or control the potential source of judgmental error and inconsistencies in the analyst's decision.
Digital Repository @ Iowa State University, http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/
Oh, Hyun-Seung, "The selection of technological forecasting models in life analysis " (1988). Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 9709.