31st Annual Meeting of the Decision Sciences Institute
This study presents a spreadsheet method for analyzing the probability of completing work at all stations on linked or mechanically paced assembly lines within a given cycle time. The method can be used to determine what cycle time to set, given a desired work load at each station. Alternately, given a desired cycle time and probability of completing all work at each station within the cycle time, the method can be used to determine how much work to allocate to each station on the line. Comparisons between the output of the spreadsheet method and simulations of the same system indicate the spreadsheet method is quite accurate.
Danny J. Johnson
Johnson, Danny J., "Analyzing Cycle Time Probabilities for Paced or Linked Assembly Files" (2000). Supply Chain Management Conference Papers, Posters and Proceedings. 7.