Using Accelerated Life Tests Results to Predict Product Field Reliability

Thumbnail Image
Date
2008-06-01
Authors
Meeker, William
Escobar, Luis
Hong, Yili
Major Professor
Advisor
Committee Member
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Authors
Person
Meeker, William
Distinguished Professor
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Organizational Unit
Statistics
As leaders in statistical research, collaboration, and education, the Department of Statistics at Iowa State University offers students an education like no other. We are committed to our mission of developing and applying statistical methods, and proud of our award-winning students and faculty.
Journal Issue
Is Version Of
Versions
Series
Department
Statistics
Abstract

Accelerated life tests (ALTs) provide timely assessments of the reliability of materials, components, and subsystems. ALTs can be run at any of these levels or at the full-system level. Sometimes ALTs generate multiple failure modes. A frequently asked question, coming near to the end of an ALT program, is “What do these test results say about field performance?” ALTs are carefully controlled whereas the field environment is highly variable. Products in the field see, for example, different average use rates across the product population. With good characterization of field use conditions, it may be possible to use ALT results to predict the failure time distribution in the field. When such information is not available but both life test data and field data (e.g., from warranty returns) are available, it may be possible to find a model to relate the two data sets. Under a reasonable set of practical assumptions, this model can then be used to predict the failure time distribution for a future component or product operating in the same use environment. This paper describes a model and methods for such situations. The methods will be illustrated by an example to predict the failure time distribution of a newly designed product with two failure modes.

Comments

This preprint was published as William Q. Meeker, Luis A. Escobar and Yili Hong, " Using Accelerated Life Tests Results to Predict Product Field Reliability", Technometrics (2009): 146-161, doi: 10.1198/TECH.2009.0016.

Description
Keywords
Citation
DOI
Source
Subject Categories
Copyright
Collections