Bottom-up estimation and top-down prediction: Solar energy prediction combining information from multiple sources

Thumbnail Image
Supplemental Files
Date
2018-01-01
Authors
Hwang, Youngdeok
Lu, Siyuan
Kim, Jae Kwang
Major Professor
Advisor
Committee Member
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Authors
Person
Kim, Jae Kwang
Professor
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Organizational Unit
Statistics
As leaders in statistical research, collaboration, and education, the Department of Statistics at Iowa State University offers students an education like no other. We are committed to our mission of developing and applying statistical methods, and proud of our award-winning students and faculty.
Journal Issue
Is Version Of
Versions
Series
Department
Statistics
Abstract

Accurately forecasting solar power using the data from multiple sources is an important but challenging problem. Our goal is to combine two different physics model forecasting outputs with real measurements from an automated monitoring network so as to better predict solar power in a timely manner. To this end, we propose a new approach of analyzing large-scale multilevel models with great computational efficiency requiring minimum monitoring and intervention. This approach features a division of the large scale data set into smaller ones with manageable sizes, based on their physical locations, and fit a local model in each area. The local model estimates are then combined sequentially from the specified multilevel models using our novel bottom-up approach for parameter estimation. The prediction, on the other hand, is implemented in a top-down matter. The proposed method is applied to the solar energy prediction problem for the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot Initiative.

Comments

This article is published as Hwang, Youngdeok; Lu, Siyuan; Kim, Jae-Kwang. Bottom-up estimation and top-down prediction: Solar energy prediction combining information from multiple sources. Ann. Appl. Stat. 12 (2018), no. 4, 2096--2120. doi: 10.1214/18-AOAS1145. Posted with permission.

Description
Keywords
Citation
DOI
Copyright
Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2018
Collections