Title

Assessing Risk of a Serious Failure Mode Based on Limited Field Data

Campus Units

Statistics

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Accepted Manuscript

Publication Date

3-2015

Journal or Book Title

IEEE Transactions on Reliability

Volume

64

Issue

1

First Page

51

Last Page

62

DOI

10.1109/TR.2014.2354893

Abstract

Many consumer products are designed and manufactured so that the probability of failure during the technological life of the product is small. Most product units in the field retire before they fail. Even though the number of failures of such products is small, there is still a need to model and predict field failures for purposes of risk assessment in applications that involve safety. Challenges in the modeling and prediction of failures arise because the retirement times are often unknown, few failures have been reported, and there are delays in field failure reporting. Motivated by an application to assess the risk of failure for a particular product, we develop a statistical prediction procedure that considers the impact of product retirements and reporting delays. Based on the developed method, we provide the point predictions for the cumulative number of reported failures over a future time period, and corresponding prediction intervals to quantify uncertainty. We also conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of different assumptions on failure-time and retirement distributions.

Comments

This is a manuscript of an article published as Xu, Zhibing, Yili Hong, and William Q. Meeker. "Assessing risk of a serious failure mode based on limited field data." IEEE Transactions on Reliability 64, no. 1 (2015): 51-62. DOI: 10.1109/TR.2014.2354893. Posted with permission.

Rights

© 2014 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.

Copyright Owner

IEEE

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

Published Version

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