Title

Product Component Genealogy Modeling and Field‐failure Prediction

Campus Units

Statistics

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Accepted Manuscript

Publication Date

2-2017

Journal or Book Title

Quality and Reliability Engineering International

Volume

33

Issue

1

First Page

135

Last Page

148

DOI

10.1002/qre.1996

Abstract

Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life‐cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can be achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field‐failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.

Comments

This is the peer-reviewed version of the following article: King, Caleb, Yili Hong, and William Q. Meeker. "Product Component Genealogy Modeling and Field‐failure Prediction." Quality and Reliability Engineering International 33, no. 1 (2017): 135-148., which has been published in final form at DOI: 10.1002/qre.1996.This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.

Copyright Owner

John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

Published Version

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