On the S-instability and degeneracy of discrete deep learning models

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2019-11-05
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Kaplan, Andee
Nordman, Daniel
Vardeman, Stephen
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Vardeman, Stephen
University Professor Emeritus
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Statistics
As leaders in statistical research, collaboration, and education, the Department of Statistics at Iowa State University offers students an education like no other. We are committed to our mission of developing and applying statistical methods, and proud of our award-winning students and faculty.
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Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
The Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering teaches the design, analysis, and improvement of the systems and processes in manufacturing, consulting, and service industries by application of the principles of engineering. The Department of General Engineering was formed in 1929. In 1956 its name changed to Department of Industrial Engineering. In 1989 its name changed to the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering.
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Abstract

A probability model exhibits instability if small changes in a data outcome result in large and, often unanticipated, changes in probability. This instability is a property of the probability model, given by a distributional form and a given configuration of parameters. For correlated data structures found in several application areas, there is increasing interest in identifying such sensitivity in model probability structure. We consider the problem of quantifying instability for general probability models defined on sequences of observations, where each sequence of length N has a finite number of possible values that can be taken at each point. A sequence of probability models, indexed by N⁠, and an associated parameter sequence result to accommodate data of expanding dimension. Model instability is formally shown to occur when a certain log probability ratio under such models grows faster than N⁠. In this case, a one component change in the data sequence can shift probability by orders of magnitude. Also, as instability becomes more extreme, the resulting probability models are shown to tend to degeneracy, placing all their probability on potentially small portions of the sample space. These results on instability apply to large classes of models commonly used in random graphs, network analysis and machine learning contexts.

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This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Information and Inference: A Journal of the IMA following peer review. The version of record: Kaplan, Andee, Daniel J. Nordman, and Stephen B. Vardeman. "On the S-instability and degeneracy of discrete deep learning models," Information and Inference: A Journal of the IMA is available online at DOI: 10.1093/imaiai/iaz022. Posted with permission.

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Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2019
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